February 10, 2021 
The number of newborns registered with the government in China dropped almost 15% last year, amid widespread concern over falling birthrates in the world’s most populous country.
According to figures published by the Ministry of Public Security this week, there were 10.03 million new babies registered in 2020, compared to 11.79 million the year before — a decrease of 14.9%. The news comes as last year, China recorded the lowest birthrate since the People’s Republic was founded in 1949.
China’s demographic issues could pose serious issues for the world’s second-largest economy when the current working-age population reaches retirement. Experts worry if the trend continues, or the population begins shrinking, China may get old before it gets rich.
According to the most recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 250 million people over 60 years old in China last year, around 18% of the population.
While China’s demographic shift is still nothing compared to some of its hyper-aged neighbors — such as Japan and South Korea, both of whose populations are now shrinking — it still poses potential problems in future, particularly as the “one child” generation ages.
In force from 1979 to 2015, the “one child policy” limited most couples in China to a single baby, as part of an attempt at controlling a rapidly growing population while the country was still developing. Draconian enforcement of the rule saw couples hit with heavy fines or penalties, while millions women were forced to have abortions if they were found to be carrying a second child.
As a result of the policy, China’s fertility rate fell dramatically, from a peak of almost six births per woman between 1960 and 1965 to 1.5 between 1995 and 2014. At the same time, the number of people over the age of 65 increased from 3.36% in 1965 to almost 10% in 2015, when the one child policy was switched to allowing two children. In 2019, people over the age of 65 accounted for 12.6% of the total population.
Since 2016, couples have been allowed to have two children, but it appears to have been too late to turn around the decline, with parents settling into the trend common in most developed countries of having fewer children. The next national census, counting of which began in November, is expected to show a decline for the first time in decades, and could mean India overtakes China as the most populous country.
By 2050, a third of the population, around 480 million people, are expected to be over 60, with many younger workers from one-child families supporting their parents and two sets of grandparents, in a country where social services for the elderly are still lacking. Uncertainty over the official figures put out by the government could also mean the situation is worse than it currently appears.
– CNN
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